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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 43 for 12 yards (50-S.Olubi).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.99 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP