Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 7

(7:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.87 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model