Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 77

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 6

(:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to IND 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 34 for 10 yards (35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.44 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model