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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 58

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP