Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 57

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 6

(11:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 13 for 6 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model