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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 46

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to IND 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP