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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 55

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.54 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model