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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 73

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 11-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 20 for 9 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model