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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

PIT
45.5%
SEA
54.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PIT

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Knee
Elandon Roberts LB Out Pectoral
Trenton Thompson S Out Neck
Kenny Pickett QB Questionable Ankle

SEA

Jamal Adams S Out Knee
Frank Clark LB Out Not injury related - resting player
Mario Edwards DE Out Knee
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Out Ribs
Jason Peters T Out Foot
Nick Bellore LB Questionable Knee
DK Metcalf WR Questionable Back
Jordyn Brooks LB Questionable Ankle
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Shoulder
Devon Witherspoon CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 30
–
SEA 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:53 TD PIT (1:53) 30-J.Warren left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 13:54 TD SEA (13:54) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – SEA 6
  • Q2 10:30 FG PIT (10:30) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 10 – SEA 7
  • Q2 05:36 TD SEA (5:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Benton]. PIT 10 – SEA 13
  • Q2 01:41 TD PIT (1:41) 22-N.Harris right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – SEA 14
  • Q3 10:51 FG SEA (10:51) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PIT 17 – SEA 17
  • Q3 07:05 TD PIT (7:05) 22-N.Harris left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – SEA 17
  • Q4 13:34 FG SEA (13:34) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PIT 24 – SEA 20
  • Q4 07:10 FG PIT (7:10) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 27 – SEA 20
  • Q4 04:33 FG PIT (4:33) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 30 – SEA 20
  • Q4 02:05 FG SEA (2:05) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PIT 30 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 55%

    (11:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep left to 14-G.Pickens (27-T.Woolen).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 32%

    (9:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%

    (6:23) 2-M.Rudolph left guard to SEA 44 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner; 52-D.Taylor).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (10:30) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 88%

    (10:51) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to PIT 15, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-C.Austin to PIT 21 for 6 yards (20-J.Love, 58-D.Hall).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:17) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (13:34) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (9:49) 2-M.Rudolph left guard to SEA 11 for 2 yards (53-B.Mafe; 0-D.Bush).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (7:10) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (4:33) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:05) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.