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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model