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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.09 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP