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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 2-M.Rudolph left guard to SEA 11 for 2 yards (53-B.Mafe; 0-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model