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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model