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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to PIT 15, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-C.Austin to PIT 21 for 6 yards (20-J.Love, 58-D.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model