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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model