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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 2-M.Rudolph left guard to SEA 44 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner; 52-D.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.45 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model