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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP