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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model