4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LV
33.7%
IND
66.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LV defense: -0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to IND: Gardner Minshew (IND) -0.041 vs Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.132 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LV 19
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LV

Michael Mayer TE Out Toe
Josh Jacobs RB Doubtful Quadricep
Jermaine Eluemunor T Questionable Knee
Andre James C Questionable Ankle

IND

Zack Moss RB Out Forearm
Cameron McGrone LB Questionable Illness
Kenny Moore CB Questionable Back
D.J. Montgomery WR Questionable Groin
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Concussion
Braden Smith T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 20
–
IND 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:15 TD IND (12:15) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 06:01 FG LV (6:01) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – IND 7
  • Q2 04:02 TD IND (4:02) 65-J.Sills reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – IND 13
  • Q3 06:36 TD LV (6:36) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – IND 14
  • Q3 01:21 FG IND (1:21) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LV 10 – IND 17
  • Q4 07:37 FG IND (7:37) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LV 10 – IND 20
  • Q4 04:39 FG LV (4:39) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – IND 20
  • Q4 03:15 FG IND (3:15) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. LV 13 – IND 23
  • Q4 00:46 TD LV (:46) (No Huddle) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 19 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (6:01) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to LV 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:51) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to IND 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LV 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 3-D.Carter to LV 40 for 3 yards (43-T.Denbow, 50-S.Olubi).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (:02) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to IND 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to LV 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (7:12) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to IND 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 56%

    (1:02) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to IND 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-59-L.Masterson.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 60%

    (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to LV 20 for 20 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (1:21) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 48%

    (13:23) 6-A.Cole punts 21 yards to IND 24, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (7:37) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:54) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 11-T.Tucker to IND 46 for 16 yards (29-J.Brents).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (4:39) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 85%

    (3:15) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (:46) (No Huddle) 4-A.O'Connell pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.