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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to IND 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-59-L.Masterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model