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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 6-A.Cole punts 21 yards to IND 24, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP