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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model