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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 85

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LV 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 3-D.Carter to LV 40 for 3 yards (43-T.Denbow, 50-S.Olubi).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP