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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to IND 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model