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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to IND 6, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model