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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.97 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model