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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to IND 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model