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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model