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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 33.5

Win Probability

HOU
63.7%
NYJ
36.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.277 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.246 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.140 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Zach Wilson in place of Tim Boyle)
  • NYJ defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 23
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

HOU

DeAndre Houston-Carson S Out Illness
Dalton Schultz TE Out Hamstring
Noah Brown WR Questionable Knee
George Fant T Questionable Hip
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Elbow

NYJ

Jason Brownlee WR Out Ankle
Wes Schweitzer G Out Calf
Aaron Rodgers QB Out Achilles
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Ankle
Breece Hall RB Questionable Ankle
Carter Warren T Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 6
–
NYJ 30

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q3 11:11 TD NYJ (11:11) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 04:37 TD NYJ (4:37) 82-X.Gipson right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 00:00 TD HOU (:00) 60-D.Eiselen reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – NYJ 14
  • Q4 09:32 TD NYJ (9:32) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 20-Bre.Hall for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 06:56 FG NYJ (6:56) 9-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. HOU 6 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 04:34 FG NYJ (4:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. HOU 6 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 01:12 FG NYJ (1:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. HOU 6 – NYJ 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:24) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 63%

    (5:55) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 20 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 65 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 27 for 14 yards (35-J.Hansen).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:55) 5-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to HOU 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.King to HOU 33 for 22 yards (21-A.Davis; 34-J.Hardee).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:51) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for no gain (37-D.Ross).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (9:42) 17-G.Wilson left end to NYJ 36 for 3 yards (21-S.Nelson; 1-J.Ward).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 47%

    (7:13) 5-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NYJ 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:47) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to HOU 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at HOU 6, recovered by HOU-0-A.Amos at HOU 5.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NYJ 43, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 46 for 3 yards (4-T.Thomas, 37-D.Ross).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 23%

    (1:59) 5-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to HOU 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:12) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NYJ 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 85-N.Brown.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 72%

    (6:56) 9-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 85-N.Brown (4-D.Reed).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 65%

    (4:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 8-J.Metchie (4-D.Reed).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%

    (1:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.