Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 6 – New York Jets 24

(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 85-N.Brown (4-D.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

What Happened

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model