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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 54

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP