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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 53

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 5-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to HOU 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model