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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NYJ 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model