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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 72

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to HOU 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.King to HOU 33 for 22 yards (21-A.Davis; 34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model