Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 74

Houston Texans 6 – New York Jets 27

(3:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 8-J.Metchie (4-D.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EP