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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 91

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NYJ 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.34 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 91, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP