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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 17-G.Wilson left end to NYJ 36 for 3 yards (21-S.Nelson; 1-J.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.76 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model