Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 14

(3:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model