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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Chris Tabor
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CAR
25.8%
NO
74.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.253 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (NO): +0.004 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CAR

DeShawn Williams DE Out Knee
Hayden Hurst TE Out Concussion
Bradley Bozeman C Questionable Ankle
Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Back
Stephen Sullivan TE Questionable Shoulder
Tommy Tremble TE Questionable Hip
Yetur Gross-Matos LB Questionable Hamstring

NO

Isaiah Foskey DE Out Quadricep
Kendre Miller RB Out Ankle
Taysom Hill QB Questionable Foot
Chris Olave WR Questionable Illness
Rashid Shaheed WR Questionable Thigh
Derek Carr QB Questionable Concussion
Blake Grupe K Questionable right Groin
Nick Saldiveri G Questionable Shoulder
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Quadricep
Cameron Jordan DE Questionable Ankle
Pete Werner LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 6
–
NO 28

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD NO (15:00) 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q2 09:21 FG CAR (9:21) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – NO 7
  • Q2 04:43 TD NO (4:43) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker to CAR 16 for -10 yards (45-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (45-N.Sewell), touched at CAR 15, RECOVERED by NO-52-D.Jackson at CAR 8. 52-D.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-10-J.Hekker was injured during the play. CAR 3 – NO 13
  • Q3 05:00 FG CAR (5:00) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 6 – NO 14
  • Q4 06:03 TD NO (6:03) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short right to 12-C.Olave for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 20
  • Q4 04:34 TD NO (4:34) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 80-J.Graham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NO 33, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-L.Bowden to NO 44 for 11 yards (90-A.Barno).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (9:07) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 63%

    (4:55) 39-L.Hedley punts 27 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-46-A.Prentice.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:16) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NO 44, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-L.Bowden to CAR 44 for 12 yards (44-J.Jansen; 27-A.Cook).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

    (9:21) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:14) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to CAR 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 18 for 1 yard (28-L.Johnson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:43) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker to CAR 16 for -10 yards (45-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (45-N.Sewell), touched at CAR 15, RECOVERED by NO-52-D.Jackson at CAR 8. 52-D.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-10-J.Hekker was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 45%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Chark (1-A.Taylor).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:19) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette. INJURY UPDATE: CAR 80-I.Thomas, ankle, QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 97%

    (5:00) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:02) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 30 for no gain (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (13:39) 4-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:23) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

    (8:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 3-R.Blackshear.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 82-T.Tremble.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 45 for 11 yards (28-L.Johnson).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 72%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right [53-Z.Baun].