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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right [53-Z.Baun].

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.24 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.23 EP