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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to CAR 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 18 for 1 yard (28-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model