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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model