Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 6

(12:23) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.09 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model