Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(14:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NO 33, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-L.Bowden to NO 44 for 11 yards (90-A.Barno).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.63 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model