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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 30 for no gain (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model