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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker to CAR 16 for -10 yards (45-N.Sewell). FUMBLES (45-N.Sewell), touched at CAR 15, RECOVERED by NO-52-D.Jackson at CAR 8. 52-D.Jackson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-10-J.Hekker was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model