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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NO 44, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-L.Bowden to CAR 44 for 12 yards (44-J.Jansen; 27-A.Cook).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP