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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model