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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Monday 2023-12-04 · 20:15 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CIN
33.9%
JAX
66.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jake Browning (CIN): -0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: -0.019 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
JAX 25
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CIN

Cam Taylor-Britt CB Out Quadricep
Jay Tufele DT Questionable Illness
D'Ante Smith T Questionable Knee

JAX

Brenton Strange TE Questionable Foot
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Hamstring
Travis Etienne RB Questionable Ribs
Luke Farrell TE Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
JAX 31

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:55 TD JAX (6:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 12:29 TD CIN (12:29) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – JAX 7
  • Q2 06:30 TD JAX (6:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – JAX 13
  • Q2 01:06 TD CIN (1:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – JAX 14
  • Q3 12:01 TD CIN (12:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Robertson-Harris]. CIN 20 – JAX 14
  • Q3 05:33 TD JAX (5:33) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 11-P.Washington for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – JAX 20
  • Q3 03:13 TD JAX (3:13) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – JAX 27
  • Q4 09:28 TD CIN (9:28) 6-J.Browning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – JAX 28
  • Q4 02:33 FG CIN (2:33) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 31 – JAX 28
  • Q4 00:30 FG JAX (:30) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CIN 31 – JAX 31
  • Q5 01:50 FG CIN (1:50) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. Penalty on JAX-2-R.Jenkins, Leaping, declined. CIN 34 – JAX 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 47%

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked at JAX 49 for -5 yards (sack split by 44-T.Walker and 41-J.Allen).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (7:30) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to CIN 4 for 2 yards (92-B.Hill; 98-D.Reader).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 62%

    (2:17) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 39%

    (1:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to CIN 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (3:13) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 52%

    (:59) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 9.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to JAX 48, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones to JAX 48 for no gain (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (10:58) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to JAX 4 for 6 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 17 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (5:03) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 67%

    (2:33) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 90%

    (:30) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.