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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to CIN 4 for 2 yards (92-B.Hill; 98-D.Reader).

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +6.00 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model